Hello Bloxters! And welcome to my altcoin TA series premiere!
You can check out my previous BTCUSD analysis (here).
Let’s get straight to it!
Please note that this is NOT a buy/sell trigger, nor a signal, nor an investment suggestion. This is purely for educational purposes and opinion sharing. I will not be held responsible for any consequences caused by misinterpreting my analysis. Even though my methods are somewhat unique and unorthodox, my goal here is not to teach you how to do technical analysis, nor to disclose my analysis/trading strategies, but to present to you my general view of the market situation and prediction (and have some fun while at it).
So as we all know, the crypto-verse is shattered at the moment. Things are quiet since the total crypto market capitalization is, for the third time since November 2017, crashing towards the $200B zone, of which $110B is Bitcoins, $20B is Ethereum, and last but not least, since quite recently, $16B for the 3rd cryptocurrency by market capitalization – Ripple, followed by other cryptocurrencies.
And Ripple is the one on today’s menu ladies and gents!
Why we Focus on Ripple?
As noted, things are quiet recently, comparing to September when everything was exploding with either FOMO or FUD. Now, everyone is kinda in a cramp of some kind, wondering what to do next, or what will happen next. The markets are more or less consolidating, but there are a few »gems« that stand out.
One of those is Ripple (XRP), a cryptocurrency loved by some and hated by others. As I see it, most people hate it as it is tightly connected to banks, and people hate banks. On the other hand, it boasts with some of the largest communities of supporters out there. The Ripple team has also been VERY active lately, as they managed to get into some quite big banks and corporations with their products, signing new contracts almost on a daily basis. And let’s be honest – if you’re a startup of this kind, your dreams and goals are getting some big banks to sign you up and use your product.
My View about Ripple
Now while I do own some XRP for quite a long time myself, I am not to be mistaken for a die-hard XRP fan. I like the idea, I respect their efforts, and we can’t neglect the fact they are, in fact, changing the world for the better by allowing faster transactions of money, with no limits or borders, and with minimal fees. And changing the world for the better is what blockchain tech is, and should be all about.
Analyzing XRP graphs and trends
Alright, ‘nough with the chitchat, let’s look at some charts!
Since this is my first XRPUSD TA, it will be a tad longer. Follow-ups will be shorter, I promise.
Here’s an overview of XRPUSD history on a daily chart:
Oh my, what a look. XRP went from zero to hero in less than a month. That is from December 6th to January 4th, it went from $0.20 to $3.30. Now I think it’s safe to say a LOT of people made a LOT of money in a very short time if they played it smart and safe. I sold a few then myself, a tiny fraction of my holdings, and made a few bucks. Then again, I know some people personally that bought it at $3, against my advice, because they were so impressed by the project. Or was it the hype? I think it was the hype.
The drop in price after January was not entirely due to people selling off their XRP, the whole market crashed at that time.
Now, did I analyse the chart around January 18h, I’d pull off my Fibonacci tool, and immediately tell you there’s quite a possibility of this outcome. See here:
If I pull the Fibo tool from the highest-high, down to the first lower-low, we see that the lowest-low was EXACTLY on my 1.272 Fibo zone. It re-tested it once more, before shooting up quite violently. And you all know that’s my favorite zone!
Next, did I do the same on the next lower-low, I’d get the same result – a re-bounce on my 1.272 zone:
And on the next lower-low:
And so on. It’s what Fibonacci is all about – natural recursion, sequence, repetition. And here we see how powerful it is.
What Ripple did this week
But let’s focus on the more recent events for the analysis sake. Let’s take the chart from July 12th till now for example.
What we see is price dropping from $0.525 to $0.25, climbing up to the 0.5 Fibo zone, dropping back down to the $0.25 mark, and then… Rocketing up all the way to $0.8 in a matter of days. Now that’s unnatural movement, and nature always restores balance. The price didn’t even recognize any patterns or natural movement. And what does that tell me? It’s a pump. And a pump it was. The balance was restored. The first pump (1) was natural, the second (2) was not.
It did recognize Fibonacci tho! Right up there to the 4.236 zone.
It was a 423.60% growth considering I’m measuring Fibo from the last higher-high. Great for profits, not so great for trust. We’re now at around $0.43 price tag. Where next?
Considering I find the pump un-natural, I don’t use it for the next short-term target prediction. It was a hype pump due to the massive overflow of good news. So doing a Fibo on it, I get this:
On the spot. Price hit 1.272 zone, and I expect an upside correction move.
Now as for the next mid-term target, taking the pump into consideration, we get this:
We get the image that price just might return to the pre-pump zone, and continue it’s growth naturally. Next, I check what awaits ahead as a next mid-to-longterm target:
And from a wider angle for a better perspective:
As noted, what I’m expecting is for the price to return to the pre-pump zone around $0.34 before continuing it’s growth naturally, with the 1.272 Fibo zone or approx $0.73 in sight as a mid-term target.
That’s it for today, thanks for dropping by! Drop a comment, share your thoughts, share the page as well if you wish. This was my first of many-to-come altcoin TAs, so expect to hear from me again soon. Real soon…
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This was yours truly, Dani, signing out!
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